Data Quality
Report Data Bug ↗Models were asked to predict all 104 matches of the 2026 World Cup before the tournament began. Many models used a different group draw than the official one — or predicted teams that didn't qualify. This page documents what was found and how predictions were remapped to the canonical schedule.
Group Stage Prediction Quality (72 matches)
Per-Model Detail
Only 73 of 72 group stage matchups matched the official draw.
All 72 group stage matches correctly identified — only match_id ordering differed from canonical.
All 72 group stage matches correctly identified — only match_id ordering differed from canonical.
Only 5 of 72 group stage matchups matched the official draw. 29 predictions used real WC teams in impossible pairings (wrong draw). 39 predictions involved teams that didn't qualify. 67 canonical matches have no prediction from this model.
Only 5 of 72 group stage matchups matched the official draw. 39 predictions used real WC teams in impossible pairings (wrong draw). 31 predictions involved teams that didn't qualify. 67 canonical matches have no prediction from this model.
Only 4 of 72 group stage matchups matched the official draw. 45 predictions used real WC teams in impossible pairings (wrong draw). 24 predictions involved teams that didn't qualify. 68 canonical matches have no prediction from this model.
Only 4 of 72 group stage matchups matched the official draw. 36 predictions used real WC teams in impossible pairings (wrong draw). 33 predictions involved teams that didn't qualify. 68 canonical matches have no prediction from this model.
Only 3 of 72 group stage matchups matched the official draw. 34 predictions used real WC teams in impossible pairings (wrong draw). 36 predictions involved teams that didn't qualify. 69 canonical matches have no prediction from this model.
Only 2 of 72 group stage matchups matched the official draw. 40 predictions used real WC teams in impossible pairings (wrong draw). 30 predictions involved teams that didn't qualify. 70 canonical matches have no prediction from this model.
Only 2 of 72 group stage matchups matched the official draw. 30 predictions used real WC teams in impossible pairings (wrong draw). 40 predictions involved teams that didn't qualify. 70 canonical matches have no prediction from this model.
Teams Models Hallucinated (not in 2026 World Cup)
Methodology Notes
- Predictions were remapped by matching team name pairs (order-insensitive) against the canonical tournament.json, not by match_id.
- Team names were normalized before matching: lowercased, trimmed, and known aliases resolved (e.g. "United States" → "USA", "Czech Republic" → "Czechia").
- Home/away orientation was corrected when a model listed the teams in reversed order.
- Knockout stage predictions (match IDs 73–104) are kept as-is. Since bracket matchups are not yet determined, any pairing of qualifying teams is potentially valid — knockout predictions are never classified as wrong-draw, regardless of the teams named.
- Wrong-draw classification applies only to group stage slots (match IDs 1–72), where the group composition is fixed. A prediction placing two real WC teams in a group stage match where they never meet is definitively incorrect.
- Remapped predictions are stored in predictions_canonical.json per model and used exclusively by the scoring engine.
If you spotted a mismatched prediction, wrong team name, or scoring error, open an issue on GitHub.